Scalability of Obesity Treatments: Need To TargetTuesday, December 6, 2016
Yesterday, I discussed the desperate need for scalable obesity treatments.
I pointed out that neither behavioural nor surgical interventions are readily scalable to provide long-term obesity treatments to the over 7,000,000 Canadians currently considered to have obesity.
I also noted that, like for other chronic diseases, only medical treatments with anti-obesity medications have the potential for scalability in the millions – we do this regularly for the millions of people living with diabetes, hypertension, heart disease, or any of the other common chronic diseases affecting Canadians.
Nevertheless, before we discuss what it would take to scale up medical treatments, let us take a look at whether all 7,000,000 affected Canadians really need obesity treatment.
Let us first note that the number 7,000,000 refers to Canadians with a BMI over 30. This may well overestimate the problem – as not everyone will actually need or likely benefit from anti-obesity treatments (BMI measures size – not health!).
In fact, if we apply the actual WHO definition of obesity, namely the presence of abnormal or excess body fat that impairs health, we can perhaps readily reduce this number by about 5-10% (anyone with Edmonton Obesity Stage 0) obesity, as these individuals are pretty healthy despite their excess weight. As there is no evidence that these rather healthy individuals would experience any long-term benefits from anti-obesity treatments, it would be entirely reasonable to take a “watch and wait” approach.
The 7,000,000 also includes an additional 15-20% of people, who would have rather mild impairments in health (Edmonton Obesity Stage 1), associated with a very low long-term risk – for these there is also no proven long-term benefit of obesity treatment.
Thus, we can readily exclude about 20 to 30% of individuals for whom the risk-benefit ratio (and thus, the cost-benefit relationship) would hardly justify the use of prescription medications.
This would reduce the number needed to treat by as many as 2 million – leaving us with about 5,000,000 left to treat.
Of these (by definition), all would have Edmonton Obesity Stage 2 or higher, meaning that they will all have some obesity related health impairments.
However, many of these individuals will have obesity related health risks (e.g. hypertension, diabetes, sleep apnea) that are currently well managed with other available treatments (e.g. anti-hypertensive or anti-diabetic medications, CPAP, etc.). For these well-managed patients, it is not clear what additional value anti-obesity medications would offer.
Let us assume that this number of well managed patients is about 50% of the remaining 5,000,000 – this leaves us with only 2,500,000 individuals with obesity related health problems that are not well managed with the available treatments for their comorbidities. It is probably only in these individuals that medical obesity treatment would make sense – both in terms of cost and benefit.
Let us further assume that for another 50% of the remaining for various reasons (e.g. too sick, too old, no ready access to medically supervised care, not interested in obesity treatment, etc.) medical treatment for obesity is not feasible.
This would leave us with only about 1,250,000 patients where medical treatment with prescription drugs would be both practical and likely cost-effective.
This is now a much more manageable problem. In fact, this is only about half the number of Canadians currently living with diabetes, a problem that is routinely managed with medical treatments.
So where are the anti-obesity treatments for these patients?
That will be the topic of tomorrow’s post.